Bad Bunny could be on the verge of making Grammy Awards history this Sunday, as his chances of becoming the first Spanish-language artist to win Album of the Year continue to climb — just days before he headlines the Super Bowl halftime show.
According to prediction market Kalshi, Bad Bunny’s odds of taking home the top prize for his album Debí Tirar Más Fotos stood at 54% as of 2 p.m. ET on Friday. Polymarket placed his chances at a similar 53% around the same time.
Trailing behind him in the race is Lady Gaga’s Mayhem, which holds a 24% chance of winning and would mark her first Album of the Year victory. Kendrick Lamar’s GNX follows closely with odds ranging from 20% to 23%. A win for Lamar would make him the first solo male rapper to claim the prestigious award.
The strong projections cap what has already been a landmark year for Bad Bunny at the Grammys. He became the first Spanish-language artist to receive nominations in all three of the ceremony’s “Big Four” categories: Song, Record, and Album of the Year. In the album category, Debí Tirar Más Fotos is competing against projects from Justin Bieber, Sabrina Carpenter, Clipse, Pusha T and Malice, Lady Gaga, Kendrick Lamar, Leon Thomas, and Tyler, The Creator.
Beyond the top honors, Bad Bunny earned additional nominations for Best Música Urbana Album, Best Global Performance for “EoO,” and Best Album Cover — a newly introduced category. His latest album follows Un Verano Sin Ti, which in 2022 became the first Spanish-language record ever nominated for Album of the Year.
The awards buzz comes just one week before Bad Bunny takes the stage at the Super Bowl halftime show. Announced in late September, his selection made him the first Spanish-language artist to headline the performance solo. The move reflects the NFL’s ongoing efforts to expand its global reach, highlighted by seven international regular-season games this year across five cities.
However, the halftime announcement also drew political backlash. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and President Donald Trump criticized the choice, calling it “a terrible choice” that “sows hatred,” citing Bad Bunny’s outspoken views on immigration enforcement. The artist previously excluded the U.S. from a recent tour over concerns about fan safety amid heightened ICE activity. Federal law enforcement is expected to maintain a visible presence at this year’s Super Bowl, but fans expect the reggaetonero to put on a performance that also serves as a strong political statement.